Many companies that have taken on a furlough scheme are now doing the maths to see when they will have their hands free to deal with a workforce reduction. Even some that have been entitled to social security exemption since 1st October have chosen to forego it, exempting them from the obligation to extend their commitment not to lay off by six months, according to several employment law firms. They agree that we are in the "dead calm" before of the storm that will break out this autumn and continue into the first quarter of 2021.

And they also agree that many companies, aware that the recovery will not completely hit rock bottom and that we are heading for a structural rather than a cyclical crisis, are asking them to carry out studies to find out what the legal conditions are for deciding how and when to tackle cuts. In fact, the layoffs have already begun with companies that did not submit furlough schemes and others that have weighed up the cost of skipping the ban.

Furloughed workers

Alfredo Aspra, a labour partner in the Andersen Employment Practice, points out that there are three groups of companies. One, those in the most affected sectors (aeronautics, hotels, cruise ships and travel agencies, among others), which have not been able to wait to meet the legal deadlines for dismissal and have begun restructuring, such as Airbus or Pullmantur. The second block is companies which are clear that they are going to submit a furlough scheme and are determining the volume of restructuring and when. And the third are companies that by size or sector, such as construction, can maintain their business, although taking conservative positions. Aspra concludes with the reflection that many drastic decisions are going to be taken in the first quarter of next year. In fact, in Andersen they are already in various projects, some in preparation, others in the implementation phase and some already finishing the employment regulation order.

The full article can be read in El Economista.